Hi Allen,
it is very hard to tell without looking at the model. Most likely, your Vz is too large. Can you do
plotmodel(md,'data',sqrt(md.results.StressbalanceSolution.Vx.^2 + md.results.StressbalanceSolution.Vy.^2))
and compare that to the obs? If it looks good, it is definitely Vz.
Best
Mathieu